https://doi.org/10.1140/epjc/s10052-017-4767-z
Regular Article - Theoretical Physics
Modeling theoretical uncertainties in phenomenological analyses for particle physics
1
CNRS, Aix–Marseille Univ, Université de Toulon, CPT UMR 7332, 13288, Marseille Cedex 9, France
2
Laboratoire de Physique Théorique (UMR 8627), CNRS, Univ. Paris–Sud, Université Paris-Saclay, 91405, Orsay Cedex, France
3
Laboratoire de Physique Corpusculaire, CNRS/IN2P3, UMR 6533, Campus des Cézeaux, 24 Av. des Landais, 63177, Aubière Cedex, France
4
Groupe de Physique Théorique, Institut de Physique Nucléaire, Univ. Paris–Sud, CNRS/IN2P3, Université Paris–Saclay, 91406, Orsay Cedex, France
5
J. Stefan Institute, Jamova 39, P. O. Box 3000, 1001, Ljubljana, Slovenia
* e-mail: descotes@th.u-psud.fr
Received:
23
November
2016
Accepted:
19
March
2017
Published online:
4
April
2017
The determination of the fundamental parameters of the Standard Model (and its extensions) is often limited by the presence of statistical and theoretical uncertainties. We present several models for the latter uncertainties (random, nuisance, external) in the frequentist framework, and we derive the corresponding p values. In the case of the nuisance approach where theoretical uncertainties are modeled as biases, we highlight the important, but arbitrary, issue of the range of variation chosen for the bias parameters. We introduce the concept of adaptive p value, which is obtained by adjusting the range of variation for the bias according to the significance considered, and which allows us to tackle metrology and exclusion tests with a single and well-defined unified tool, which exhibits interesting frequentist properties. We discuss how the determination of fundamental parameters is impacted by the model chosen for theoretical uncertainties, illustrating several issues with examples from quark flavor physics.
© The Author(s), 2017
