Eur. Phys. J. C (2026) 86: 170
https://doi.org/10.1140/epjc/s10052-025-14938-9

Regular Article - Experimental Physics

Sensitivity of the Hyper-Kamiokande experiment to neutrino oscillation parameters using accelerator neutrinos

¹ Kamioka Observatory, Institute for Cosmic Ray Research, University of Tokyo, Kamioka, 506-1205, Hida, Gifu, Japan
² ILANCE, CNRS-University of Tokyo International Research Laboratory, 277-8582, Kashiwa, Chiba, Japan
³ Faculty of Sciences, Mohammed V University, Rabat, Morocco
⁴ Department of Physics, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, 113-0033, Tokyo, Japan
⁵ University of Winnipeg, 515 Portage Ave, R3B 2E9, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
⁶ High Energy Accelerator Research Organization (KEK), 1-1 Oho, 305-0801, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
⁷ Physics Department, Lancaster University, LA1 4YB, Lancaster, UK
⁸ Department of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, Western Bank, University of Sheffield, S10 2TN, Sheffield, UK
⁹ Institute for Particle Physics and Astrophysics, ETH Zurich, Otto-Stern-Weg 5, 8093, Zurich, Switzerland
¹⁰ INFN Sezione di Bari, via Orabona 4, 70126, Bari, Italy
¹¹ INFN Sezione di Roma, P.le A.Moro 2, 00185, Rome, Italy
¹² Department of Physics, Blackett Laboratory, South Kensington Campus, Imperial College London, SW7 2AZ, London, UK
¹³ Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 1-1-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, 113-0032, Tokyo, Japan
¹⁴ Department of Physics, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), Rua Marquês de São Vicente, 225, Gávea, 22451900, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
¹⁵ Department of Physics, Kyoto University, 606-8502, Kyoto, Japan
¹⁶ Faculty of Science, Tohoku University, Aoba, Aramaki, Aoba-ku, 980-8578, Sendai, Japan
¹⁷ Kyiv National University, Kyiv, Ukraine
¹⁸ Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), ETSIT, Camino de Vera, s/n., 46022, Valencia, Spain
¹⁹ Department of Physics, University of Regina, 3737 Wascana Parkway, S4S0A2, Regina, Canada
²⁰ Department of Physics, Clarendon Laboratory, University of Oxford, Parks Road, OX1 3PU, Oxford, UK
²¹ The Henryk Niewodniczanski Institute of Nuclear Physics Polish Academy of Sciences, ul. Radzikowskiego 152, 31-342, Kraków, Poland
²² Laboratoire Leprince-Ringuet, Ecole Polytechnique, IN2P3-CNRS, 91120, Palaiseau, France
²³ Faculty of Sciences Ain Chock, Hassan II University of Casablanca, Physics, B.P. 5366, Km 8 Route d’El Jadida, Maarif, 20100, Casablanca, Morocco
²⁴ Politecnico di Bari, via Orabona 4, 70126, Bari, Italy
²⁵ INFN, Sezione di Padova, via Marzolo 8, 35131, Padua, Italy
²⁶ Department of Physics and Astronomy, Università di Padova, via Marzolo 8, 35131, Padua, Italy
²⁷ Department of Physics, York University, 4700 Keele Street, M3J1P3, Toronto, ON, Canada
²⁸ Department of Physics, King’s College London, Strand, WC2R 2LS, London, UK
²⁹ Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, 92697-4575, Irvine, USA
³⁰ INFN Sezione di Napoli, Via Vicinale Cupa Cintia, 26, 80126, Naples, Italy
³¹ Laboratoire de Physique Nucléaire et de Hautes Energies (LPNHE), CNRS/IN2P3, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
³² Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
³³ MOMA Group, Universidad de Oviedo, C. San Francisco, 3, 33003, Oviedo, Asturias, Spain
³⁴ Wrocław University, Plac Maxa Borna 9, 50-204, Wrocław, Poland
³⁵ Universite de Geneve, DPNC, 24, quai Ernest-Ansermet, 1211, Geneva 4, Switzerland
³⁶ S. N. Bose National Centre for Basic Sciences, Kolkata, India
³⁷ University of Warwick, Physics, Gibbet Hill Road, CV312NY, Coventry, UK
³⁸ Dipartimento di Fisica, Università degli Studi di Salerno, Via Giovanni Paolo II 132, 84084, Fisciano, Italy
³⁹ INFN Gruppo Collegato di Salerno, Via Giovanni Paolo II 132, 84084, Fisciano, Italy
⁴⁰ Department of Physics, Yokohama National University, 79-5 Tokiwadai, Hodogaya-ku, 240-8501, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan
⁴¹ A. Chełkowski Institute of Physics, Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Silesia in Katowice, ul. Bankowa 12, 40-007, Katowice, Poland
⁴² Institute of Radioelectronics and Multimedia Technology, Warsaw University of Technology, Nowowiejska 15/19, 00-665, Warsaw, Poland
⁴³ STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, RAL PPD and TD, Harwell Science Campus, OX11 0QX, Didcot, UK
⁴⁴ Canfranc Underground Laboratory (LSC), Paseo de los Ayerbe s/n, 22888, Canfranc, Spain
⁴⁵ Institute For Interdisciplinary Research in Science and Education, International Center of Interdisciplinary Science and Education, 07 Science Avenue, Quy Nhon Nam Ward, 55131, Quy Nhon, Gia Lai, Vietnam
⁴⁶ Institut de Física d’Altes Energies (IFAE)-The Barcelona Institute of Science and Technology (BIST), Campus UAB, 08193, Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain
⁴⁷ Centre for Astroparticles and High Energy Physics (CAPA), University of Zaragoza, C/ Pedro Cerbuna 12, 50009, Zaragoza, Spain
⁴⁸ Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences, Ibn-Tofail University, Kenitra, PB 133, Campus Universitaire, 14000, Kenitra, Morocco
⁴⁹ Indian Institute of Technology-Guwahati, Guwahati, India
⁵⁰ Laboratory for High Energy Physics, Dongshin University, 58245, Naju, Chonnam, Republic of Korea
⁵¹ Department of Physics, School of Engineering Sciences, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
⁵² Tecnologico de Monterrey, Escuela de Ingenieria y Ciencias, Blvd. Pedro Infante 3773, 80100, Culiacán, Sinaloa, Mexico
⁵³ Faculty of Science, Joint Laboratory of Optics, Palacký University Olomouc, 17. listopadu 50A, 772 07, Olomouc, Czech Republic
⁵⁴ Nicolaus Copernicus Astronomical Centre of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Astrocent, Rektorska 4, 00-614, Warsaw, Poland
⁵⁵ Department of Physics, University of Liverpool, L69 7ZX, Liverpool, UK
⁵⁶ TRIUMF, 4004 Wesbrook Mall, V6T 2A3, Vancouver, Canada
⁵⁷ Instituto Galego de Física de Altas Enerxías (IGFAE), Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Rúa de Xoaquín Díaz de Rábago, s/n, 15705, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
⁵⁸ Departamento de Física, CUCEI, Universidad de Guadalajara, Blvd. Marcelino García Barragán 1421, 44430, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico
⁵⁹ Doctorado en Tecnologías de la Información, CUCEA, Universidad de Guadalajara, Periférico Norte 799, Los Belenes, 45100, Zapopan, Jalisco, Mexico
⁶⁰ Università Federico II di Napoli, Via Vicinale Cupa Cintia, 26, 80126, Naples, Italy
⁶¹ Physics, Tezpur University, Napaam, 784028, Sonitpur, Assam, India
⁶² National Centre for Nuclear Research, ul. Soltana 7, 05-400, Otwock, Poland
⁶³ IPNP, FMF Charles University, Ke Karlovu 3, 121 16, Prague 2, Czech Republic
⁶⁴ Institute of Nuclear and Particle Physics, NCSR Demokritos, Neapoleos Str. 27 and Patr. Grigoriou E, 15341, Agia Paraskevi, Attiki, Greece
⁶⁵ School of Physics, The University of Melbourne, 3010, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
⁶⁶ Department of Physics, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, K1S 5B6, Ottawa, ON, Canada
⁶⁷ Tecnologico de Monterrey, Escuela de Ingeniería y Ciencias, Ave. Eugenio Garza Sada 2501 Sur Col: Tecnologico, 64700, Monterrey, NL, Mexico
⁶⁸ Department of Theoretical Physics and CIAFF, Ciudad Universitaria de Cantoblanco, University Autonoma Madrid (UAM), 28049, Madrid, Spain
⁶⁹ Donostia International Physics Center, C/ Manuel Mendizabal 4, 20018, Donostia-San Sebastián, Spain
⁷⁰ Oskar Klein Centre and Department of Physics, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
⁷¹ Miyagi University of Education, 149 Aramaki-aza-Aoba, Aoba-ku, 980-0845, Sendai, Japan
⁷² Vishwakarma Institute of Information Technology, S. No. 3/4, Kondhwa (Bk), 411048, Pune, India
⁷³ Università della Campania L. Vanvitelli, Naples, Italy
⁷⁴ Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Ben Guerir, Morocco
⁷⁵ Institute for Theoretical Physics and Modeling, Halabyan Street, 34/1, 0036, Yerevan, Armenia
⁷⁶ Faculty of Science and Technology, Keio University, Hiyoshi 3-14-1, 223-8522, Yokohama, Japan
⁷⁷ University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, USA
⁷⁸ Department of Physics, Okayama university, 3-1-1 Tsushima-naka, Kita-ku, 700-8530, Okayama, Japan
⁷⁹ Tokyo University of Science, Physics and Astronomy, 2641 Yamazaki, 278-8510, Noda, Chiba, Japan
⁸⁰ Department of Physics, Graduate School of Science, Kobe University, 1-1 Rokkodai, Nada, 657-8501, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan
⁸¹ Research Center for Cosmic Neutrinos, Institute for Cosmic Ray Research, University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwa-no-ha, 277-8582, Kashiwa, Chiba, Japan
⁸² Institute of Science Tokyo, 2-12-1 Ookayama, Meguro-ku, 152-8551, Tokyo, Japan
⁸³ Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology, Physics and Photon Science, 123 Cheomdangwagi-ro, Buk-gu, 61005, Gwangju, Republic of Korea
⁸⁴ Kavli IPMU/UTokyo, Kavli Institute for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (WPI), The University of Tokyo Institutes for Advanced Study, University of Tokyo, 277-8583, Kashiwa, Chiba, Japan
⁸⁵ Department of Physics, Kyungpook National University, 80 Daehak-ro, Buk-gu, 41566, Daegu, Republic of Korea
⁸⁶ Chonnam National University, 77, Yongbong-ro, Buk-gu, 61186, Gwangju, Republic of Korea
⁸⁷ Institute for Cosmic Ray Research, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
⁸⁸ Tokyo Metropolitan University, 1-1 Minamioosawa, Hachioji, 192-0397, Tokyo, Japan
⁸⁹ Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Victoria, 3800 Finnerty Road, V8P 5C2, Victoria, Canada
⁹⁰ Physics and Astronomy, Louisiana State University, 202 Nicholson Hall, 70803, Baton Rouge, LA, USA
⁹¹ Physics, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST), 50 UNIST-gil, Ulju-gun, 44919, Ulsan, Republic of Korea
⁹² Department of Physics, Sungkyunkwan University, Jangan-gu, Seobu-ro 2066, 16419, Suwon, Republic of Korea
⁹³ INFN Sezione di Pisa, Largo B. Pontecorvo 3, 56127, Pisa, Italy
⁹⁴ Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Pisa, Largo B. Pontecorvo 3, 56127, Pisa, Italy
⁹⁵ School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Glasgow, G12 8QQ, Glasgow, UK
⁹⁶ Mechanical Engineering, University of Girona-AMADE, Carrer Universitat de Girona 4, 17003, Girona, Spain
⁹⁷ Virginia Tech, 24060, Blacksburg, VA, USA
⁹⁸ Physics, University of Toronto, 60 St. George St., M5S1A7, Toronto, ON, Canada
⁹⁹ Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Furocho, Chikusa-ku, 464-8602, Nagoya, Aichi, Japan
¹⁰⁰ Indian Institute of Technology-Jodhpur, Jodhpur, India
¹⁰¹ Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Technology-Kharagpur, 721302, Kharagpur, West Bengal, India
¹⁰² Faculty of Science, The University of Toyama, Gofuku 3190, 930-8555, Toyama, Japan
¹⁰³ Oskar Klein Centre and Department of Astronomy, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
¹⁰⁴ Department of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala University, Box 516, 75120, Uppsala, Sweden
¹⁰⁵ Astronomical Observatory, Jagiellonian University, ul. Orla 171, 30-244, Kraków, Poland
¹⁰⁶ Physics, British Columbia Institute of Technology (BCIT), 3700 Willingdon Ave., V5G 3H2, Burnaby, BC, Canada
¹⁰⁷ Faculty of Physics, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland
¹⁰⁸ Institute of Electronics, AGH University of Krakow, al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-059, Kraków, Poland
¹⁰⁹ III. Physikalisches Institut, RWTH Aachen University, Sommerfeldstr. 16, 52074, Aachen, Germany
¹¹⁰ Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Utah, 84112, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
¹¹¹ Department of Physics, Osaka Metropolitan University, 558-8585, Osaka, Japan
¹¹² ARC Centre of Excellence for Gravitational Wave Discovery, Monash University, 3800, Clayton, VIC, Australia
¹¹³ Department of Physics and Astronomy, Seoul National University, 08826, Seoul, Korea
¹¹⁴ INFN Laboratori Nazionali di Legnaro, Legnaro, Italy
¹¹⁵ Research Center for Neutrino Science, Tohoku University, 6-3, Aramaki Aza Aoba, Aobaku, 980-8578, Sendai, Japan
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¹³⁵ J-PARC, Naka, Ibaraki, Japan
¹³⁶ Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
¹³⁷ Departament de Fisica de la Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
¹³⁸ Qilimanjaro Quantum Tech S.L., Carrer de Veneçuela, 74, 08019, Barcelona, Spain
¹³⁹ SOKENDAI, Tsukuba, Japan
¹⁴⁰ Kobayashi-Maskawa Institute for the Origin of Particles and the Universe, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan
¹⁴¹ CIRA, the Italian Aerospace Research Centre, 81043, Capua, Italy

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Received: 20 May 2025
Accepted: 13 October 2025
Published online: 23 February 2026

Abstract

This paper presents the expected sensitivity to the neutrino oscillation parameters of the Hyper-Kamiokande long-baseline program. The Hyper-Kamiokande experiment, currently under construction in Japan, will measure the oscillations of accelerator-produced neutrinos with thousands of selected events per sample: this corresponds to an increase of statistics of a factor 25–100 with respect to recent results from the currently-running long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment in Japan, T2K. In the most favorable scenario we will achieve the discovery of Charge-Parity (CP) violation in neutrino oscillation at $5\sigma$ C.L. in less than 3 years. With 10 years of data-taking, and assuming a neutrino : antineutrino beam running ratio of 1:3, a CP violation discovery at $5\sigma$ C.L. is possible for more than 60% of the actual values of the CP-violating phase, ${\delta }_{\mathit{CP}}.$ Moreover, we will measure ${\delta }_{\mathit{CP}}$ with a precision ranging from 20$_{}^{\circ },$ in the case of maximal CP violation, to 6$_{}^{\circ },$ in the case of CP conservation. We aim to achieve a 0.5% resolution on the $\mathrm{\Delta }{m}_{32}^2$ parameter, and a resolution between 3% and 0.5% on the ${sin}^2{\theta }_{23}$ parameter, depending on its true value. These results are obtained by extending the analysis methods of T2K with dedicated tuning to take into account the Hyper-Kamiokande design: the larger far detector, the more powerful beam, the upgraded near detector ND280, and the planned additional Intermediate Water Cherenkov Detector.